A new phase of the Ukraine war may be imminent, but this time the escalation seems to be driven not by Russia, but by Ukraine. With long-range missiles in its arsenal, Ukraine is now closer to striking deep inside Russian territory—a move that could significantly shift the dynamics of the conflict.

For months, Kyiv has been pressing the West, especially the United States, for permission to use these powerful weapons. Until recently, Washington had imposed restrictions on their use, limiting Ukraine’s strikes to within its own borders. However, a change in stance appears to be taking place, with the U.S. now signaling a potential green light for Ukraine to use long-range weapons against Russia.

Blinken’s Visit: A Game-Changing Hint

The U.S. Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, and British Foreign Secretary, David Lamy, met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv. Following their talks, Blinken hinted at a shift in U.S. policy, saying, “We have adjusted and adapted as the needs have changed, and I have no doubt that we’ll continue to do so as the situation evolves.” This statement is widely interpreted as a signal that the U.S. might finally allow Ukraine to carry out long-range strikes on Russian soil using Western-supplied weapons.

Long-Range Missiles: The Key to a New Battlefield

Ukraine currently possesses two powerful missile systems: the Anglo-French Storm Shadow and the American-made ATACMS. Both systems are capable of hitting targets up to 190 miles (around 300 kilometers) away. With such a range, Ukraine could strike deep into Russia, targeting critical military infrastructure such as airfields, command centers, fuel depots, and ammunition warehouses.

Should Ukraine decide to use these missiles, it could target up to 250 key Russian military installations, potentially crippling Russia’s logistical and operational capabilities. Kyiv believes that these strikes could drastically alter the course of the war, pushing Russian forces back and accelerating the path to peace.

Zelensky Calls for Decisiveness

Ukrainian President Zelensky has made it clear that Ukraine sees these long-range strikes as essential to its strategy. “It’s important to lift all restrictions on the use of American and British weapons against lawful targets on Russian territory,” he stated. He emphasized that Ukraine needs to strike deeper into Russian positions to protect its people and defend its gains on the battlefield.

The U.S. Reluctance and Growing Pressure

While the U.S. has been reluctant to approve these long-range strikes, it is facing growing pressure from its European allies. Ukraine has seen some success in its incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, but it is now facing increasing pressure from Russian forces in the east, particularly around the strategically vital city of Pokrovsk. This city serves as a gateway to the Donbass region, and its defense is critical for Ukraine’s continued resistance.

Iran’s Support for Russia Complicates the Battlefield

As Ukraine pushes for more advanced weaponry, Russia has been bolstered by support from Iran. The West claims that Iran has supplied Russia with short-range ballistic missiles, including the Fateh-360, and reports indicate that Moscow has received around 200 of these missiles. These missiles are expected to be deployed in Ukraine in the coming weeks, which could further strain Ukraine’s defensive capabilities.

The United States has confirmed these transfers, warning that Iran’s missiles could soon be used against Ukrainian targets, resulting in significant civilian casualties. Although Tehran has denied these accusations, the West has responded by imposing additional sanctions on Iran. However, sanctions have done little to change the course of the war, and Iran’s support for Russia continues to complicate the conflict.

Moscow’s Response: Red Lines and Nuclear Threats

The potential for long-range strikes inside Russia has escalated tensions with the Kremlin. Russian President Vladimir Putin has previously issued stark warnings, drawing red lines for the West. Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, recently reiterated that such actions would be viewed as an intentional escalation by the West.

For Russia, a Ukrainian strike on its territory could be interpreted as a direct Western attack. Putin has previously hinted at the possibility of responding with nuclear weapons if such a situation arises. While many in the West, including CIA Chief Bill Burns, have dismissed these threats as mere saber-rattling, the risk of escalation remains high.

On the Brink of a Wider Conflict

The situation is now teetering on the edge of a broader conflict. Should Ukraine launch long-range strikes inside Russia, Moscow’s response could be severe. The West, however, seems increasingly willing to take that risk, betting that Russia’s threats of nuclear retaliation are a bluff.

With both sides on a collision course, the next phase of the Ukraine war could have far-reaching consequences—not just for the region but for global security. The decisions made in the coming weeks will likely shape the future of the conflict and determine whether it escalates into a broader, more destructive war.

Conclusion

Ukraine’s newfound ability to strike deep inside Russia could mark a turning point in the war. As the U.S. and its European allies move closer to approving long-range attacks, the battlefield may soon shift dramatically. However, the risks of escalation, particularly from Moscow, cannot be ignored. All eyes are now on Kyiv and the Kremlin, as the conflict moves into uncharted territory with potentially devastating consequences.